CR20060 Procurement of UK emissions projections and marginal abatement cost curves for Emissions Trading System (ETS) models

*** THIS IS NOT A CALL FOR COMPETITION *** This was made under Crown Commercial Services Research Marketplace Dynamic Purchasing System RM6018.

The overall aim of the project is for BEIS to receive tailored data sets of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) with their related Business As Usual emissions (BAUs).

The datasets will need to have broad consistency, as specified and agreed, with BEIS internal assumptions (such as on energy demand, energy supply, policy impact analysis and resulting emissions) under three scenarios.

These sets are for central, low and high emissions scenarios.

These data and supporting documentation will then be used in analysis to meet these objectives: • Evidence to underpin updated UK (short-term) traded carbon values (from the UK BCPM). • A robust analytical capability within BEIS to estimate the effects of policy options for the future of emissions trading in the UK and for Net Zero in the UK by 2050.

These will be used as inputs in the UK BEIS Carbon Price Model (UK BCPM), and for the UK element in the EU ETS BEIS Carbon Price Model (EU BCPM).

The contractor will need to produce: i) An agreed approach to obtain consistency with BEIS internal assumptions (such as on energy demand, energy supply, policy impact analysis and resulting emissions - see suggested methodology). ii) Business As Usual (BAU) emissions and Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) for the UK ETS: as consistent with EEP for central, high and low scenarios.

These are: • UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the years 2015 - 2050, to be provided at - at least - five yearly interval and disaggregated by sectors and technology within the traded sector and also, it is highly desirable, of the non-traded sector. • Corresponding Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) for the period. iii) an accompanying technical report.

To set out the reasoning for their approach, the contractor will also provide: i) an explanation of their proposals for consistency with BEIS internal assumptions, ii) the assumptions and methodology they propose to use in detail with reasoning, iii) a description of the quality assurance process and checks they will undertake and iv) evidence to indicate that their analysis - and associated quality assurance - will be robust and fit for purpose.